• The Pistons nearly knocked off the Bucks in Detroit last month. Can they pull off the upset on Tuesday to avoid a season sweep?
By Sam Chase
January 29, 2019

Here are Three at 3's top plays for Tuesday.

1. Milwaukee Bucks at Detroit Pistons (+7.5)

7:00 pm ET

The Bucks are a dominant 8-1 against divisional opponents this season in the Central, and will go for a full 4-0 sweep over the Pistons when they play in Detroit this evening. But given that Milwaukee is only 13-9 on the road this season (10-10-2 ATS), compared to 22-4 at home, it's worth looking at the Bucks' road victory over the Pistons on Dec. 17 as the closest point of reference for tonight's game. Despite playing on two days' rest, Milwaukee pushed as a three-point favorite in a 107-104 victory when Blake Griffin missed a game-tying three-point attempt as time expired. Over the past five seasons, favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 that have won four of their last five are 57-108 against the spread when playing teams with losing records. This season, teams are 11-23 ATS in those situations. Take the points with the home team tonight.

Pick: Pistons +7.5

2. Chicago Bulls at Brooklyn Nets (-7)

7:00 pm

The Nets gave the Celtics a good fight in Boston last night, trailing by only one point entering the fourth quarter before ultimately losing 112-104 to cover a 9.5-point spread against a team that is now 16-10 ATS at home this season. Brooklyn will be playing the second night of a back-to-back at Barclays Center on Tuesday, but has several factors working in its favor despite that. For one thing, no Net played more than 28 minutes in Boston last night, making Brooklyn's competitiveness all the more impressive. For another, the Nets are hosting the 11-39 Bulls, who will be playing their first game since losing 104-101 at home to Cleveland on Sunday as a five-point favorite, giving the Cavs only their second win since mid-December. The Nets are a league-best 13-1 (92.9%) straight up as a favorite this season, making them a smart moneyline play at the right number, too.

Pick: Nets -7

3. New Orleans Pelicans at Houston Rockets (-10.5)

8:00 pm

As if playing without an injured Anthony Davis weren't bad enough, the New Orleans locker room is now grappling with the fact that its star and leader has publicly asked for a trade from the team. Tonight will be the Pelicans' first time on the floor since the story broke, and they'll take on a Houston team that not only has James Harden in the midst of a 23-game streak of scoring 30-plus points, but is also giving him his best reinforcement as Chris Paul returns from injury. CP3 had 12 points, five rebounds, six assists in three steals in a win over the Magic on Sunday, his first game in over a month. Houston is 4-0 against the spread this season when favored by double digits, winning those contests by an average of 20.5 points. They should have little trouble against a banged-up and demoralized Pelicans squad.

Pick: Rockets -10.5

Overall Record: 115-99-4

Eagle (-2)
Birdie (-1)
Bogey (+1)
Double Bogey (+2)